This article was originally written in April 2026.
Stephen Grimley has felt the impact of the war in Iran more than most.
As a dairy farmer, price increases resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have directly impacted his bottom line.
“Fuel has gone up from 70-80p a litre to 120p or 130p a litre”, he explains, “meal [animal feed] has gone up 15%… and then your contractors who do slurry and silage and ploughing for us are going to put a surcharge on for fuel”.
With the price of milk having dropped by over 20% since last year, the economic situation is the worst Stephen has faced in over 15years.
“The milk price this time last year would have been 45p a litre and it’s down to 35p a litre now”, he says, “you are paying all these extra bills with less income, so your margins are a lot tighter”.
A third of all fertilisers and a fifth of oil and liquified natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
But since Iran forced the closure of the shipping lane, these exports have virtually ended.
About 45% of sulphur, a key ingredient in fertiliser, is also produced in the Middle East.
While the Qatar Fertiliser Company, which exports more fertiliser than any other facility in the world, was forced to close for over a month.
The combined effect of these shocks has seen the price of red diesel, the fuel used by farmers, and fertiliser almost double.
In many cases, farmers have been unable to purchase fertiliser due to a lack of supply.
With fuel and fertiliser accounting for a third of an average famer’s total costs, Stephen believes the impact of this shock could be terminal for some farming businesses.
“Anybody that is on the borderline of profitability when milk is good would have to seriously consider their position now”, he explains.
While farmers may be struggling, Henry Reilly, DUP Councillor for Newry Mourne and Down, says that consumers could soon be impacted.
“The food that you’re eating now was farmed a year ago” he says, “if indigenous farming within GB and Ireland isn’t protected you could find that the shelves could go empty in a year’s time”.
The rate of inflation has already gone up as a direct result of the war in Iran, with average prices rising by 3.3% in the year to March.
Declan McAteer, SDLP Councillor for Newry Mourne and Down, believes the situation could get worse.
“The next twelve months are very much fraught with danger”, he states, “the impact of this is not going to go away”.
The Irish government recently announced a fuel support scheme to help farmers impacted by rising costs.
Those eligible will receive rebates equivalent to 20cents a litre of green diesel.
But in Northern Ireland, the Stormont Executive have said they are unable to help farmers without the UK government providing additional funding.
Mr.Reilly believes the Treasury is unlikely to agree to this.
“I think it’s just hard for the likes of Rachel Reeves to understand that the food on the table comes from farmers”, he says.
“Our farmers deserve some help, especially with the fuel duty that they’re paying. They could knock 50p off a litre of diesel and they [government] would still be making an income from it”.
Yet Mr.McAteer claims the Executive parties could act without the help of the Labour government.
“There is a governmental and executive and ministerial responsibility here in Northern Ireland”, he claims.
“I haven’t heard any talk of intervention or even plans for it and this is what disappoints people”.
Mr.McAteer also believes that the assistance provided to farmers in the Republic of Ireland could give them an unfair advantage over their competitors in Northern Ireland.
“This is an island and it’s an island economy”, he explains, “if you’re going to have assistance in one place, you need to have it in both places”.
With President Donald Trump reportedly weighing up whether to resume military strikes on Iran following stalled negotiations, Mr.McAteer acknowledges that things are unlikely to improve until a long-term solution to the war is found.
“It’s quite incredible how small the world becomes in a situation like this”, he says, “one small region can end up impacting so much”.